Last verified: 4 November 2026. Every figure links to its official source.
Contents of this guide
When the dry season starts in Panama
Panama’s dry season runs from December to April, according to the rainfall regime the IMHPA publishes for the country. The rainy season is established from May to November on the Pacific side. December is a transition month: the October 2026 climate bulletin says that on the Pacific slope the number of rainy days keeps falling.
The exact date changes every year and there is no official start day. The IMHPA describes December as the month when the “transition begins” between the rainy and the low-rain seasons on the Pacific side, in its October 2026 climate forecast bulletin. A climate study on Panama City, hosted on the IMHPA site, places the dry season between January and mid-April, with January as the month when the dry season “starts.” The two descriptions are not identical: the first covers the whole country and the second measures the Tocumen station. The IMHPA’s own account prevails, and the study is useful for the detail on the capital.
The reason for the cycle is geographic. According to the IMHPA, the Intertropical Convergence Zone moves north and south through the year, and that migration produces the two seasons that mark most of the territory, per its general description of Panama’s climate.
Weather in Panama month by month
In the capital, January, February and March together total under 52 mm of rain, while October averages 329.6 mm and 20 rainy days. Temperature barely changes through the year: daily highs range from 32.6 to 35.3 degrees Celsius and daily lows from 19.4 to 21.9, according to the Tocumen station.
| Month | Rain (mm) | Rainy days | Daily high (°C) | Daily low (°C) | Season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 26.4 | 3 | 33.6 | 19.5 | Dry |
| February | 10.0 | 2 | 34.2 | 19.4 | Dry |
| March | 15.2 | 2 | 34.8 | 19.5 | Dry (last month) |
| April | 69.6 | 6 | 35.3 | 20.4 | Transition |
| May | 233.0 | 15 | 34.6 | 21.6 | Start of the rainy season |
| June | 238.2 | 16 | 33.9 | 21.9 | Rainy |
| July | 176.6 | 15 | 33.9 | 21.5 | Rainy (dry spell common) |
| August | 220.1 | 17 | 34.1 | 21.6 | Rainy |
| September | 247.1 | 17 | 33.3 | 21.5 | Rainy |
| October | 329.6 | 20 | 32.6 | 21.5 | Rainy (wettest month) |
| November | 252.4 | 16 | 33.0 | 21.1 | Rainy (last month) |
| December | 99.2 | 9 | 33.2 | 20.1 | Transition per the October bulletin |
The values are 1977 to 2010 averages from the Tocumen station, taken from the climate study for the districts of Panama and San Miguelito, hosted on the IMHPA site. They represent the capital, not the whole country. The same study gives an average annual rainfall of 1,917.3 mm and an average annual temperature of 27.3 degrees. It also records sunshine: 7.5 hours a day in February against 3.4 in June.
The Pacific and the Caribbean do not get the same rain
The Caribbean slope rains almost all year and has no marked dry season, according to the IMHPA. On the Pacific side the sequence is clearer: firm rains from May to November, a drier spell called the “veranillo” between July and August, and a dry period from December to April.
The same rainfall regime says that on the Pacific side September and October are the wettest months, with showers that usually arrive in the afternoon along with lightning. For the Atlantic region, the IMHPA reports heavy rain between December and February, partly from northern-hemisphere frontal systems reaching the tropics. The October 2026 bulletin backs this up: in December the Caribbean stays rainy, with Atlantic storms bringing intense rainfall and some flooding.
The 2026 dry season and El Niño
In 2026 the IMHPA issued an El Niño alert on 12 May, and its official page, updated on 29 September, says the country has been in El Niño status for five consecutive months. The IMHPA lists an earlier start or longer dry season among the possible effects, with no start date.
The page on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cites NOAA, which on 10 September 2026 gave over 90% odds of a very strong event in the 2026-27 northern autumn and winter, and the World Meteorological Organization, which gave a near-100% chance of persistence through February 2027. The October bulletin adds that September closed with below-normal rain in parts of the Pacific and central areas.
| Month of 2026 | IMHPA outlook | Source |
|---|---|---|
| October | Wettest month of the year in the climatology; rain below normal is forecast for most of the country | Climate forecast bulletin |
| November | Rain below normal across most of the country; near or above normal in mountain areas of Chiriquí, the Ngäbe Buglé comarca and Veraguas | Climate forecast bulletin |
| December | Well below normal across much of the eastern region and below normal for the rest of the country | Climate forecast bulletin |
The bulletin stresses that these are medium-term probabilistic projections and that isolated intense events can still occur. For those, the IMHPA issues daily notices. With what has been published, the safest expectation is a drier-than-average end to the rains, with no exact date.
What to expect when traveling to Panama by season
For a visit to the capital, the data favor January to March: minimal rain, up to 7.5 hours of daily sun in February and highs of up to 34.8 degrees in March. From May to November, near-daily showers are part of the plan. Temperature changes little, so the choice comes down mostly to rain.
The official data measure climate, not visitor numbers or prices, so that side is left out. What they do allow is sorting the year into three blocks: dry (January to March), transition (April and December) and rainy (May to November). Holiday dates, which do move demand, are in the guides to Panama’s public holidays, December holidays and Carnival in Panama.
- Locate the destination: Pacific, Caribbean or highlands.
- Pick the block of the year from the table: dry, transition or rainy.
- Check the El Niño status on the IMHPA page, since in 2026 it may alter the usual calendar.
- Check the forecast a few days before leaving and again at the destination.
Anyone planning outdoor activities can use the schedule of concerts in January and February or the one for Christmas in Panama, since both fall in months with little rain in the capital.
Myths and facts
- Myth: it rains the same all year in Panama. Fact: the Pacific alternates a rainy and a dry season, and only the Caribbean rains almost all year, according to the IMHPA.
- Myth: the dry season starts on the same day every year. Fact: there is no official date; December is a transition month and El Niño can bring it forward or extend it.
- Myth: it is cooler in the dry season. Fact: at Tocumen the highs of March (34.8 degrees) and April (35.3) exceed those of October (32.6).
- Myth: the rainy season means rain all day. Fact: the IMHPA describes showers that usually fall in the afternoon, and even the wettest month averages 20 rainy days, not 31.
- Myth: El Niño means more rain. Fact: the IMHPA outlook for November and December 2026 is below-normal rain for most of the country.
Frequently asked questions
When does summer start in Panama?
The dry season, known locally as summer, runs from December to April according to the IMHPA, with December as a transition month. In the capital the driest months are January, February and March. There is no official start date, because it changes every year.
What are the rainy months in Panama?
The rainy months are May to November on the Pacific side, according to the IMHPA. In the capital October is the wettest, averaging 329.6 mm, and November closes the season. The Caribbean rains almost all year.
What is the temperature in Panama through the year?
Temperature varies little: at Tocumen daily highs run from 32.6 to 35.3 degrees and lows from 19.4 to 21.9. The annual mean is 27.3 degrees, according to the climate study hosted by the IMHPA.
What is the best month to visit Panama?
For the capital, the data point to January, February and March, with the least rain and the most sunshine. For the Caribbean there is no marked dry month. The answer depends on the destination and on how much rain is acceptable.
Will El Niño bring the 2026 dry season forward?
It can bring it forward or extend it, according to the IMHPA, but the institute has not set a date. The official outlook for November and December 2026 is below-normal rain across most of the country. Following the institute’s monthly bulletins is advisable.
Related articles
- Weather in Panama today: temperature in five cities
- Panama public holidays
- Panama December holidays: dates, long weekends and what closes
- Christmas in Panama: parades, lights and events with dates
- Panama Carnival: dates, holidays and main parades
- Concerts in Panama in January and February: festivals and tickets
Sources
Checked on November 4, 2026. Official sources are in Spanish.
- IMHPA, Rainfall regime of Panama.
- IMHPA, General description of Panama’s climate.
- IMHPA, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), update of 29 September 2026.
- IMHPA, Climate forecast bulletin, issue no. 58, October 2026.
- Climate characterization for the districts of Panama and San Miguelito, Tocumen station 1977-2010 (document hosted on the IMHPA site).
Ask about this article
Type your question and we will show you the answer inside this article or in other Radar Panamá publications.
